Manifesto di solidarietà europea

Bruxelles, 24 gennaio 2013

SOLIDARIETA’ EUROPEA DI FRONTE ALLA CRISI DELL’EUROZONA

La segmentazione controllata dell’Eurozona per preservare le conquiste più preziose dell’integrazione europea.

La crisi dell’Eurozona mette a rischio l’esistenza dell’Unione Europea e del Mercato Comune Europeo.

La creazione dell’Unione Europea e del Mercato Comune Europeo si colloca fra le maggiori conquiste dell’Europa post-bellica in campo politico ed economico. Il notevole successo dell’integrazione europea è scaturito da un modello di cooperazione che beneficiava tutti gli stati membri, senza minacciarne alcuno.

Si era ritenuto che l’euro potesse essere un altro importante passo avanti sulla strada di una maggiore prosperità in Europa. Invece l’Eurozona, nella sua forma attuale, è diventata una seria minaccia al progetto di integrazione europea.

I paesi meridionali dell’Eurozona sono intrappolati nella recessione e non possono ristabilire la propria competitività svalutando le proprie valute. D’altra parte, ai paesi settentrionali si chiede di mettere a rischio i benefici delle proprie politiche finanziarie prudenziali, e ci si aspetta che in quanto “benestanti” finanzino i paesi del Sud attraverso infiniti salvataggi. Questa situazione rischia di portare allo scoppio di gravi disordini sociali nell’Europa meridionale, e di compromettere profondamente il sostegno dei cittadini all’integrazione europea nell’Europa settentrionale. L’euro, invece di rafforzare l’Europa, produce divisioni e tensioni che minano le fondamenta stesse dell’Unione Europea e del Mercato Comune Europeo.

Una strategia nel segno della solidarietà europea

Riteniamo che la strategia che offre le migliori possibilità di salvare l’Unione Europea, la conquista più preziosa dell’integrazione europea, sia una segmentazione controllata dell’Eurozona attraverso l’uscita, decisa di comune accordo, dei paesi più competitivi. L’euro potrebbe rimanere – per qualche tempo – la moneta comune dei paesi meno competitivi. Ciò potrebbe comportare in definitiva il ritorno alle valute nazionali, o a differenti valute adottate da gruppi di paesi omogenei. Questa soluzione sarebbe un’espressione di vera solidarietà europea. Un euro più debole migliorerebbe la competitività dei paesi dell’Europa meridionale e li aiuterebbe a uscire dalla recessione e tornare alla crescita. Ridurrebbe anche il rischio di panico bancario e il collasso del sistema bancario nei paesi dell’Europa meridionale, che potrebbe verificarsi se questi fossero costretti ad abbandonare l’Eurozona o decidessero di farlo per pressioni dell’opinione pubblica nazionale, prima di un abbandono dell’Eurozona da parte dei paesi più competitivi.

La solidarietà europea sarebbe ulteriormente sostenuta trovando un accordo su un nuovo sistema di coordinamento delle valute europee, volto alla prevenzione di guerre valutarie e di eccessive fluttuazioni dei cambi fra i paesi Europei.

Naturalmente sarebbe necessario, in almeno alcuni dei paesi meridionali, un abbuono (haircut) dei debiti. La dimensione di questi tagli e il loro costo per i creditori,tuttavia, sarebbero inferiori rispetto al caso in cui questi paesi restassero nell’Eurozona, e le loro economie continuassero a crescere al disotto del proprio potenziale, soffrendo una elevata disoccupazione. Posta in questi termini, l’uscita dall’Eurozona non implicherebbe che le economie più competitive non debbano sopportare un costo per la diminuzione dell’onere del debito dei paesi in crisi. Tuttavia, ciò accadrebbe in circostanze nelle quali il loro contributo aiuterebbe quelle economie a tornare a crescere, al contrario di quanto accade con gli attuali salvataggi, che non ci stanno portando da nessuna parte.

Perché questa strategia è così importante?

Non occorre dire che è nostro comune interesse che l’Unione Europea torni alla crescita economica – la migliore garanzia per la stabilità e la prosperità dell’Europa. La strategia di segmentazione controllata dell’Eurozona faciliterà il conseguimento di questo risultato nei tempi più rapidi.

Consulta: http://www.european-solidarity.eu

Brussels, 24th January 2013

European Solidarity in the face of the Eurozone crisis:

Controlled Segmentation of the Eurozone in order to
Preserve the Most Valuable Achievements of European Integration

The Eurozone crisis undermines the existence of the European Union and the Common Market

The creation of the European Union and the Common European Market rank among the greatest political and economic achievements of post-war Europe. The remarkable success of European integration was a result of a model of cooperation, which served all the member states while threatening none of them.

The Euro was believed to be another important step on the road to greater prosperity in Europe. Instead, the Eurozone, in its current form, is now a serious threat to the project of European integration.

The southern countries in the Eurozone are trapped in recession and cannot restore their competitiveness by devaluating their currencies. On the other hand, the northern countries in the Eurozone are being asked to compromise their values of prudent financial policies and act as ‘deep pockets’ expected to finance the South through endless bailouts. This situation risks the outbreak of serious social unrest in southern Europe and deeply undermines public support for European integration in northern European countries. The Euro, instead of strengthening Europe, produces divisions and tensions that undermine the very foundations of the European Union and the Common Market.

A Strategy under the auspices of European Solidarity

Our view is that the strategy that offers the best chance of saving the European Union, the most valuable achievement of European integration, is a controlled segmentation of the Eurozone via a jointly agreed exit of the most competitive countries. The euro may then remain – for some time – the common currency of less competitive countries. It would ultimately mean a return to the national currencies or to different currencies serving groups of homogeneous countries. This solution would be an expression of European solidarity. A weaker euro would improve the competitiveness of southern European countries and help them escape recession and return to economic growth. It would also reduce the risk of banking panic and the collapse of the banking systems in the countries in southern Europe, which would occur if they were forced to leave the Eurozone or decided to do so due to internal public pressure prior to an exit from the Eurozone of the most competitive countries.

European Solidarity would be additionally supported by agreeing on a new European currency coordination system aimed at preventing currency wars as well as excessive currency fluctuations between European countries.

Obviously, at least in some of the southern countries, debt reduction (haircut) would be necessary. The scale of these reductions and the costs to creditors would be smaller, though, than in a situation where these countries stayed in the current Eurozone and their economies suffered below-potential growth and high unemployment. In this way, the exit from the Eurozone does not mean that the most competitive economies will not bear the cost of diminishing the debt burden of the countries in crisis. This will happen, however, in circumstances in which such assistance would help them to return to economic growth, as opposed to the current bailouts, which lead us nowhere.

Why this strategy is so important?

Needless to say, it is in our common best interest that the European Union returns to economic growth—the best guarantee of European stability and prosperity. The strategy of a controlled segmentation of the Eurozone would facilitate this outcome in the quickest way.

The signatories of the European Solidarity Manifesto (in alphabetical order)

Alberto Bagnai – Associate professor of Economic Policy in the Department of Economics at the Gabriele d’Annunzio University in Pescara (Italy), and research associate at CREAM (Centre de Recherche en Economie Appliquée à la Mondialisation, University of Rouen). His research interests focus on the sustainability of public and external debt in emerging countries; he worked as a consultant for UNECA on issues related to the macroeconomic convergence in African monetary unions. In an effort to contribute to the public understanding of the economic issues, he runs since November 2011 a blog (http://goofynomics.blogspot.com), and contributes to “Il Fatto Quotidiano” as a blogger and columnist. His latest book “Il tramonto dell’euro” (“The sunset of the euro”), published in 2012, has revived the debate on the costs and benefits of the Eurozone in Italy. Alberto Bagnai is an Italian national.

Claudio Borghi Aquilini – Professor in Financial Markets at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore. His work experience includes high managerial positions in the financial sector in Italy. He served as Managing Director and head of Italian Equity Product in Deutsche Bank Ag – Milan (2001-2008) and previously as the Milan Head of Equity Trading in Merrill Lynch. Currently contributes to ‘Il Giornale’ as a commentator. Claudio Borghi Aquilini is an Italian national.

Brigitte Granville – Professor of International Economics and Economic Policy in the School of Business and Management at Queen Mary University of London, where she is also Director of the Centre for Globalization Research (CGR). At various times, she has been a consultant on economic issues – notably monetary policy – in a range of emerging markets and developing countries, including Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Ivory Coast. These consultancy assignments were commissioned by the respective governments or by public sector organizations such as the European Commission or the World Bank. In 1992-94, Brigitte was a member of an economic policy advisory team directed by Professor Jeffrey Sachs that worked for the Russian Ministry of Finance. In this period she played a leading role in making the case for the dismantlement of the ruble zone that comprised several former Soviet republics following the collapse of the Soviet Union itself. Her latest book ‘Remembering inflation’ was published by Princeton University Press. A French national, Brigitte Granville was appointed in 2007 Chevalier des Palmes Académiques – an honour awarded by the French government for services to education.

Hans-Olaf Henkel – Professor of International Management at the University of Mannheim A former president of the Federation of German Industry – BDI (1995-2000). Worked in IBM since 1962, head of IBM Germany (1987-1992), subsequently the CEO of IBM Europe (1993-94). From 2001 to 2005 served as the President of the Leibniz-Society. Commandeur de la Légion d’Honneur in 2002. Hans-Olaf Henkel is a German national.

Stefan Kawalec – CEO of Capital Strategy, a strategy consulting company in Poland. In 1989-1994 had a significant role in the preparation and the implementation of the economic stabilization and transformation program of the Polish economy as the Chief Advisor to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Leszek Balcerowicz, and subsequently as vice-minister of finance. An active member of the democratic opposition and the Solidarity movement under communist system in Poland. Co-author of the paper: S. Kawalec, E. Pytlarczyk, ‘Controlled Dismantlement of the Eurozone: A Strategy to Save the European Union and the Single European Market’, German Economic Review, February 2013. Stefan Kawalec is a Polish national.

Jens Nordvig – Managing Director, serves as Head of Fixed Income Research, Americas and Global Head of Currency Strategy at Nomura, the global investment bank. Previously, he worked as a Senior Currency Strategist at Bridgewater Associates and as a Senior Global Markets Economist at Goldman Sachs. He was ranked #1 in Currency/Foreign Exchange research in the 2012 Institutional Investor All America Fixed Income Survey. Jens Nordvig is a Danish national.

Ernest Pytlarczyk – Chief Economist of BRE Bank S.A. (Commerzbank’s subsidiary and the third biggest commercial bank in Poland) where he directs the company’s research. He started his career as a financial markets analyst with BRE Bank in 2002 he was a research assistant at the University of Hamburg (Institute for Business Cycles) and researcher at the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt am Main. Co-author of the paper: S. Kawalec, E. Pytlarczyk, ‘Controlled Dismantlement of the Eurozone: A Strategy to Save the European Union and the Single European Market’, German Economic Review, February 2013. Ernest Pytlarczyk is a Polish national.

Jean-Jacques Rosa – Professor of Economics and Finance (Emeritus). University Professor, Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris, 1978-2009. Director and founder, Ph.D. program in economics, Sciences Po Paris, 1978-2004. Editor of the economic section “Cheminement du Futur”, Le Figaro, 1987-2001. Awarded by the title of the ” Economist of the Year” 1995 by Le Nouvel Economiste. Jean-Jacques Rosa is a French national.

Jacques Sapir – Professor of economics at the EHESS-Paris and visiting professor at MSE-MGU (Moscow). He was jointly trained in political sciences and economics at IEP-Paris and wrote his “short” PhD on Labour Management in inter-wars Soviet Union, and his “long” PhD on Investment Cycles in post-war Soviet Union. He worked at Nanterre University before joining the EHESS where he became head of the CEMI-EHESS in 1997. He was one of the very few economists to predict the Russian Krach of 1998. Since then he specialised both on the Russian economic model and on macro-economic consequences of the EMU. He runs a quite active blog RussEurope(http://russeurope.hypotheses.org/ ). His latest books: Faut-il Sortir de l’euro, Paris, Le Seuil, 2012, translated in Italian. La Transition Vingt Ans Après (with MM. Ivanter, Kuvalin and Nekipelov), Paris-Genève, Les Syrtes, 2012 (in process of translation to Russian). Jacques Sapir is a French national.

Juan Francisco Martín Seco – Academic lecturer in Introduction to Economics, Theory of Population and Public Finance. He belongs to the Corps of Comptrollers and Auditors (Spanish Ministry of Finance) and the Inspection of Credit Unions (Banco de España). He performed the duties of the Comptroller General of the General State Administration and the Secretary General of Finance. Columnist in various newspapers and magazines: “El País”, “Cinco Días”, “Gaceta de los negocios”, “Diario 16”. He belonged to the editorial board of “El Mundo” and “Público”. Currently a columnist for the newspaper “República”. Author of numerous books, including the latest: “La trastienda de la crisis” (2010), “¿Para qué servimos los economistas? (2010), “Economía. Mentiras y trampas” (2012), “Contra el euro” (2013). Juan Francisco Martín Seco is a Spanish national.

Alfred Steinherr – Professor in the School of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy. Founding Rector of the Free University of Bozen-Bolzano (1998-2003): Chief Economist and Director General, Economics and Information Directorate, European Investment Bank, Luxembourg (1995-2001). He served also in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund in Washington and as Economic Advisor to the Commission of the European Union. Alfred Steinherr is a German national.

Jean-Pierre Vesperini – professor of the Faculty of Law and Economic Science of the Universtiy of Rouen and former member of the Prime Minister’s Council of Economic Analysis, previously also professor at Sciences Po Paris and HEC. He has published many books on political economy, macro-economic theory and international economy. His latest book is titled “L’euro” (Dalloz, 2013). Jean-Pierre Vesperini is a French national.

luigi